Consumer mobility behaviour is currently undergoing constant change. McKinsey expects one in ten cars sold in 2030 to be used as a community car. Already today, the proportion of young people with a driving license has dropped from 76 to 71 percent in the USA. The figures clearly show that car sharing is a real alternative to conventional private transport. The annual growth rate of car sharing is currently over 30 percent. Especially in cities with a particularly high population density, cars have become a torture. Traffic jams and a lack of parking spaces are prompting many to switch to public transport or car sharing. The additional decline in the emotional value of the car and the parallel increase in ecological pressure continue to contribute to change. This results in an increase in car sharing use to reduce the car's harmful emissions.
Technological progress in the field of autonomous driving is already leading to major changes in the automotive industry. McKinsey predicts that after solving technological and legal problems, up to 15 percent of new cars sold in 2030 could be fully autonomous. Meanwhile, an advanced driver assistance system will play a critical role in the industry. This means that driving a car has only functional value and gives us more time to invest in other things.
Electrified vehicles will become increasingly competitive, but the degree of their adaptation at the local level will vary greatly. The widespread use of electric vehicles would require stricter emission standards, low battery costs and a widely available charging infrastructure. According to McKinsey, in 2030 the proportion of electrified vehicles could be between 10 and 50 percent of new car sales. Electric cars reduce the environmental impact and have thus become more attractive for customers. However, since the production of electric cars causes high emissions, there is still no development potential.
Blockchain improved pricing strategies to ensure more transparency for customers. But it is not only the blockchain technology that is bringing about changes in the automotive industry; the IoT is also contributing to development. The 'Internet of things' will also be more deeply integrated into the car from now on. Online surfing while driving in an autonomous car or cars that communicate important information with each other is being sought and improved. In addition, the cloud-based automotive industry reduces costs and eliminates any source of waste.
McKinsey expects automotive revenues to grow by 30 percent and could reach $15 trillion in 2030. The automotive sales market, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a reduced rate of 2 percent per year. This decline is mainly attributed to the increased use of car sharing. However, developments will vary greatly depending on the region. In London, where the ownership of a car has become a burden for most people, car sharing could develop faster than in the USA, where private car use will remain the preferred mode of transport. They should therefore prepare for uncertainties, as technological progress is far from having reached its full potential. They should also prepare for stronger cooperation between automobile manufacturers, suppliers and service providers. Ultimately, the automotive industry will have to devote itself to a phase of finding meaning from which some new business models will most probably emerge.
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