About GDP & Real Wages
Over the past ten to fifteen years the German economy has been interesting - to say the least. Germany has proven quite resilient. The economic crisis took its toll around 2008/09, no doubt. Layoffs and temp work arrangements surged and the ever so important export ratio fell quite a bit.
An interesting way to illustrate the effects of the 2008/09 financial crisis is captured in the ratio of non-performing bank loans. The falling trend was disrupted during the crisis and Germany saw a swell of new non-performers.
Non-performing loans from banks to total gross loans (%) in Germany over time
But the German economy bounced back quickly, soon treading path on the good ole´ and familiar growth trajectory once again. The amount of non-performing loans quickly fell (though it's rising again at the moment... ) and employment was soon surging again. Non surprising, the equally familiar discussion on a general shortage of labor is back on the table.
If labor supply is low, wages should increase
However, the assumed shortage is debatable. The line of reasoning is simple: shortage is likely to be reflected in rising wages. High demand and low supply equals higher prices, right? But real wages - on average - have recently remained quite stable.
In fact, between 2000 and 2017, average annual wages merely grew by about 6.000 US Dollar (from roughly 42 $k to 48 $k in constant prices 2017 USD PPP). Meanwhile, the GDP per worker - a common indicator for productivity and growth - almost doubled in the same time.
German GDP per worker in US Dollar over time
Following the classic supply-and-demand theme, a situation were low labor supply, high demand, and low wages coincide simultaneously should not really exist. Given perfect markets at least... So why do we have it nonetheless? Is labor in fact not short?
UK and the Engels’ Pause
Maybe labor supply is less short than widely believed. But possibily, we are dealing with another phenomenon. That is: a matching problem. History might explain our situation today. Let's take a closer look:
In the first few decades of the nineteenth century, the UK experienced a similar situation at first hand. This period is commonly referred to as an Engels' Pause.
Friedrich Engels described the situation where real wages stagnated whilst GDP grew explosively in the UK in his famous piece The Condition of the Working Class in England. Taking it as inspiration, British economic historian Robert C. Allen coined the time between 1820 and 1840 „Engels’ Pause“.
But next to the relationship between wages and productivity, other circumstances seem to resemble todays news headlines, too:
- Income inequality was growing significantly
- Urbanization took off as more and more people wanted to live in the cities
- First appearances of disruptive technological change - namely the industrial revolution - came up on the horizon
- Frustration among the working class grew and an uproar for political and economical change soon came to fruition
As we know today, mass-production prevailed and catapulted Britain to new highs and a long lasting position in the front seat of global economic growth.
In comparison, the Engels' Pause was - in hindsight - rather short lived. But it still lasted a couple of decades. Wages increased again from around 1840 on and started to move parallel to the GDP per worker again.
GDP and Real Wages in the UK over time
Why did wages not increase more quickly?
There is quite a debate on this particular question. One explanation is the mere distribution of labor. The technological advances in the agricultural sector led to a rural exodus. City population surged and the supply of labor in these areas far exceeded demand.
Hence GDP per worker grew, but competition among workers kept wages in cities and around factories stagnant. So supply was indeed high - but more due to hardship.
In addition, the needed skillset to operate machinery and alike were in low supply. Getting a job often ment sacrifizing former levels of income. The alternative was no job at all. It just took some time until labor education provided what the new working environment demanded.
In summary: supply of labor was not short - but the kind of labor demanded was not matched.
The role of capital
Part of the Engels' Pause is the accumulation of capital. As technology rapidly advances, savings rate rise. Investors save to invest into processes impovement and new technology. Hence, an Engels' Pause tends to coincide with capital accumulation.
The resemblance to the 21st century is striking
Looking back a couple of centuries almost is like looking into a mirror of time. Present-day conditions such as the role of intelligent technology, inequality in the distribution of wealth, and the changing nature of the workforce bring about a striking resemblance.
So, are we in an Engels’ Pause today, too? It remains to be seen. But it is indeed possible. Especially the looming sword of Damocles - i.e. Artificial Intelligence - is widely believed to significantly alter the workforce. Rapidly-increasing technology in blue- and white-collar jobs again might lead to poor wage growth, worker redundancy and excessive capital accrual by capital owners. In short, we might be dealing with another Engels' Pause afterall.
Transformation needs to happen now
What is there to do? For one, we suggest to closely monitor the broader economic situation. It is important for business owners, workers and consultants - everyone really - to keep the described dynamic in mind. But in a more hands on manor, we strongly believe that now is the time to start tomorrow's transformation. On a micro economic level that is.
Especially the German Mittelstand and family owned business are addressed here. Former industry leaders may fall back if they are not transformed into more nimble corporations that can role with the punches offered by an evermore turbulent global economy. Investment into new technology and labour education is needed now. The German Automotive and Retail industry tell part of that story already.
Falcon can help!
We wrote quite a bit about business transformation. Some of the many examples are to be found below. The major lesson learned during writing the small articles is simple: business transformation is extremely difficult. That is why we developed Falcon. Falcon is a web-based project management software designed for long-term business transformation! Many of our clients exclusively use Falcon to future proof their businesses. Interested? Just try Falcon and get in touch. It's free: 30 Day Free Trial